Stock markets tumbling sparking worldwide panic, the fear of recession becoming a ”˜when’ not ”˜if’ and the pound reaching an all-time low against the dollar – all of these were part of the predicted fall-out from Brexit.
Market analysts at UBS also predicted the FTSE 100 would fall in excess of 20%. In reality, markets stuttered and the pound weakened, but the 9% drop in the FTSE 100 over the two days following the vote was nowhere near the forecast.
Almost three months on from the vote to leave Europe, top Yorkshire IFA Stephen Baxter believes a financial ”˜Brenaissance’ is on the cards and whilst the long-term outlook of leaving Europe remains foggy, there is plenty to be positive about at this moment in time.
“Many fears have been eradicated and the outlook is looking much more positive,” said Stephen, Joint Managing Director at Robertson Baxter.
“We have just seen the first signs that house prices are on the rise in certain areas and whilst buyer enquiries were still down in August, there was an improvement from the July data which is likely to be linked to the Bank of England’s Decision to reduce the Base Rate to 0.25% effectively reducing borrowing costs on mortgages.
“The two main market indices in the UK are both showing strong returns in the 12 weeks following the referendum with the FTSE 100 up 9.24% and FTSE 250 up 5.63% between the 23rd June 2016 and 8th September 2016, adding billions in value to pension funds and investment portfolios,” add Stephen, whose firm manages the financial future of very high net worth individuals, trustees and charities across the region.
“The Bank of England’s swift action following the Referendum has paid dividends,” he added. “The interest rate cut and additional quantative easing to the tune of £170 billion has made sure that there is plenty of liquidity within the UK market to allow it to continue to function well, and this has also encouraged banks to carry on lending which is a vital requirement in running a strong financial system. This has ultimately meant that recession fears are now fading although they have not completely vanished.
“There are many other factors, such as the appointment of Theresa May as PM, which was generally viewed as positive, and the fall in the value of the pound which has seen a large increase in exports and an increase in Britons holidaying in the UK due to increased travel costs, which have led to a dissipation of fear and uncertainty.
“Importantly, businesses are starting to realise that nothing much has changed and life goes on, due to the fact that at this time we still currently remain within the EU and are likely to do so for some time yet.
“The reality remains that still the longer term effect of Brexit is unknown, all we can comment on is the here and now, and if the here and now continues to gain pace over the coming months then the future looks a lot brighter than most suggested.”
To arrange a meeting with a Robertson Baxter IFA call 01484 608095 or visit https://robertsonbaxter.com/contact-us
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